A small analysis of elections 2009.

I'll analyze the election results here (just mention here what you already know) :-)

Overall, the people's mandate is for the Manmohan Singh's government and essentially for the Congress party which has put up its best performance after 1984's tornado. And its goodbye Advani- in fact the BJP has gone down with Mr Advani putting up its worst performance since the rise of Advani on-the-rath!

Well 2009, somewhat like 2004 was fought on a "state basis" (you know all the states going to polls rather than the country).. But yes, many of the states did vote to rout the destabilizing jokers and of course, the personality war was also there. So we'll see some of the states which mattered this time :

The revolutionary states :-
*) Jammu n Kashmir : As a victory of Indian democracy, one of the separatist hurriyat leaders - Sajjad lone contested the Parliamentary elections! and the other two extremist parties : PDP and BJP were rejected by the people :-)

*) West Bengal : The decades old dream of Mamata Bannerjee finally comes true - the "Red" Fort is breached.. The worst performance of the Left in 4 decades : and it was not only the Singur farmer, even the Kolkata's urban youth came out in support of the "more national" alliance.. Beginning of an end for the Left....? Hope so :-) (Kerala was a little expected, and left losing there is no surprise)

*) Tamilnadu : The ever-swinging pendulum has refused to swing without no reason : so the opposition cannot "assume" victory anymore. And for all good reasons (I guess) that the people of Tamilnadu have refused (certainly reduced) the support to LTTE and those who mobilized the voters in its name. Leave alone the others, even Vaiko is defeated! and he's defeated when the biggest crackdown ever on the LTTE is on!! Its a certain end to the LTTE and lets hope that the Lankan Tamils will also get back to mainstream now..
So the revolutionary vote is 'for' the state's and centre's pro-poor policies! (the Televisions have worked it seems).

*) Uttar Pradesh : While it is still unfortunate that the BJP has done so miserably there, it was really great to see the other national party - INC to revive so fantastically that they are the no 2 party in the state! Seems that the Rahul factor has really turned the tables in UP! Good to see both Mulayam and Mayavati losing their voices in the national politics, perhaps a few more seats to the BJP (from these 2 spoilsports) and it would've been perfect :-)
So the revolution is in the marginalization of the 'local forces' and the revival of the congress..

The X-Factors :-
*) Vijayakanth : Came as a rescue for Mr Karunanidhi in Tamilnadu where a clean sweep was expected, but as it turns out the DMK-Cong alliance has actually exceeded its 2004's performance! So yes, there was a little indirect help of Vijayakanth for the UPA in Tamilnadu. (Hoping to see something happening in Tamilnadu which will mark an end of Both DMK & AIADMK :-)

*) Chiranjeevi : Again, an actor's debut in politics helps the Congress! Real similar to the Vijayakanth factor in Tamilnadu, the Anti-incumbant vote in Andhra Pradesh was stolen by Chiranjeevi.. of course, he also took away the votes of TDP and has emerged as a strong force.

*) Raj Thackray : The real spoilsport for BJP-Shivsena alliance in Maharashtra.. He took away significant amount of votes from the saffron alliance, also re-uniting the non-marathi votes which went for the Congress party.

Although these X-factors were very much responsible for the victory of the congress, Its really unfortunate to see these smaller forces being given the support!

The positives of the result :-
*) A clear mandate : For the congress party (206), more than the UPA, so no more bargains, no more threats to the stability, no more blockades of decisions at the center.. We can see a smooth sailing in Delhi :-)

*) Rise of the national parties at the cost of regional ones : Like it or not, but the likes of CB Naidu, Jayalalitha, Deve Gowda, Sharad Pawar, Mulayam, Mayavati, Lalu, paswan, and other jokers alongwith the anti-progress left have been rejected. Ironically, the people who were till yesterday dreaming of forming a government! are now lining up at 10 Janpath to Beg the congress for making them a part of the government..!!
Unfortunately, the undecidability of what kind of politics the BJP would follow, has really cost them dearly... Putting Modi as a future PM candidate obviously didn't work in Gujarat (Cong - 10, BJP - 16) and actually backfired badly in other states. An image correction and working towards the pan Indian politics is the need of the hour for them.. Lets hope sense prevails in that camp.

*) Rejection of the divisive politics : As the Gujarat results show, and more importantly the results of Uttar Pradesh, that the Hate speeches are not the way to win anymore.. Yes, you can mobilize a small section and win that particular seat, but then you will probably need to go speak like this everywhere to win the majority.. And that too will fade away with time.. Its not a permanent way of polity......


The worrying factors :-
*) Karnataka has continued to support the party which actually tarnished the secular image of the state (In Mangalore....). May be now, we'll see more such unfortunate incidents! And another side-effect of this is that there will be lesser number of ministers from the state (I mean u didn't even let Bangarappa win! and no seats in bangalore - so just forget about the ministries), and a possible alienation from the center :-(

*) Similar situations are there in my state of Bihar, and the state of Orissa, where people did the mistake of voting for the state governments in Lok Sabha elections! I mean what good will the MP's of BJD or the JDU will do in the parliament? Okay, they've done a good job in the state, so take them to power in the state again, but sending them to delhi is not the best of ideas!